Trump threatens to double Mexico tariffs over migrant caravans, without saying which tariffs or when

President Trump threatened Thursday to double tariffs on goods from Mexico unless the Mexican government stops migrant caravans heading north. In a Truth Social post on Nov. 12, he wrote that tariffs on Mexico would be "IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED" if it did not act. FreightWaves reported that he did not say which tariffs he meant, and Bloomberg News said he gave no timeline.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum disputed his account at her daily news briefing the same day. She said no caravan has reached the U.S. border since Trump returned to office in 2025, and that a group of about 600 migrants in Chiapas had mostly broken up, the Associated Press reported Nov. 12. She also ruled out using force to stop the groups.

The peso slipped to its low for the session after the post, Bloomberg reported. The same report said it is not clear what legal authority Trump would use to raise the duties, since a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year narrowed his tariff powers. Bloomberg also noted that he has acted on some earlier tariff threats and backed off others.

The threat hits talks that were already stuck. Mexico is pressing for steep cuts to a 10% U.S. tariff on Mexican goods that fall outside the USMCA trade pact and to a 25% duty on medium and heavy trucks, AP reported Nov. 12. The same Nov. 12 AP story said the talks have also covered a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 17% duty on Mexican tomatoes. People familiar with the negotiations told Bloomberg they stalled this fall over the metals tariffs. All of this is running alongside a USMCA review that began in July, AP said, and Bloomberg reported that Trump chose this summer not to extend the pact.

What it means for carriers

Mexico trade rides mostly on trucks. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics said Oct. 21 that U.S.-Mexico freight across all modes was worth $94.3 billion in August, up 26.7% from a year earlier, and that trucks carried $73.9 billion of it. BTS named Laredo, El Paso and Otay Mesa as the top truck ports for that trade.

Nothing has changed at the border yet. No new rate, start date or list of covered goods has been published. Cross-border carriers and fleets that run Texas outbound lanes can keep booking as usual, but a firm start date could push shippers to rush freight across ahead of it, which could tighten trucks and dock appointments.

Fleets pricing new equipment have a separate stake. Because Trump did not name the tariffs he meant, it is unclear whether the 25% duty on medium and heavy trucks that AP described Nov. 12 would be part of any increase.

What shippers and brokers should watch

- A formal order or Federal Register notice. That is where rates, covered goods and a start date would show up.
- USMCA paperwork. AP's report puts the 10% tariff on goods outside the pact, and FreightWaves said it is not known whether existing exemptions would survive a doubling. Confirm which products qualify and that certifications of origin are current.
- The caravans and the talks. Trump tied the threat to migrants reaching the border, and Sheinbaum says Mexico is handling the groups now in the south.
- Laredo and El Paso capacity. Any rush to beat a deadline would show up there first, in fewer open trucks and longer border waits.