EIA raises its 2027 diesel forecast to $5.03 a gallon, even as pump prices slide

Diesel is getting cheaper at the pump, but federal forecasters now expect it to stay expensive longer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 10, projects that U.S. retail diesel will average $5.03 a gallon in 2027. EIA's October outlook had put 2027 at $4.49, and the agency said Nov. 10 that the new figure is 12% higher.

The 2026 number barely moved. EIA's Nov. 10 outlook puts this year's diesel average at $5.25 a gallon, up from $5.19 in October.

The path still points down, just from a higher shelf. In the price table EIA published with the Nov. 10 outlook, diesel averages $6.05 in the fourth quarter of 2026, $5.37 in the first quarter of 2027 and $4.80 by the fourth quarter of 2027. The same Nov. 10 table puts the 2025 average at $3.66.

Why EIA went higher

EIA said Nov. 10 that crude prices rose for a third straight month in October as global inventories fell, tankers in the Persian Gulf came under attack and shipping capacity stayed tight. The agency expects global supplies of refined fuels to stay constrained through 2027, which it says will widen refining margins next year and keep U.S. refineries running hard. Bloomberg's Nov. 10 report, carried by Transport Topics, said continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have added to the pressure from the Iran conflict.

EIA assumes most Middle East oil production outside Iran is back to pre-conflict levels by mid-2027. In the Nov. 10 outlook, that lets global stockpiles rebuild and walks Brent crude from about $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026 down to an average of $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027. U.S. commercial crude stocks ended October at 410 million barrels, the lowest for that time of year since 2014, EIA said Nov. 10.

The forecast is already a few days old. EIA locked its inputs on Nov. 5 and says the outlook does not reflect later events. Brent was trading near $92 a barrel on Nov. 10, Bloomberg reported, below the roughly $100 EIA assumes for the rest of the year. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan posted Nov. 10 that the national diesel average was $6.157 a gallon that morning and falling 1 to 2 cents a day, and he repeated his call for diesel under $6 around Thanksgiving.

What it means for carriers, shippers and brokers

For 2027 contracts, EIA's Nov. 10 numbers argue against budgeting fuel anywhere near the 2025 average of $3.66 in its table. Even EIA's lowest quarterly forecast through 2027, $4.80 for the fourth quarter in that Nov. 10 table, sits well above it. A carrier quoting fixed all-in rates for next year carries that fuel risk alone. A surcharge that resets with EIA's weekly national average passes it through to the freight bill.

Shippers and brokers should treat the forecast as a baseline, not a promise. It depends on Middle East supply recovering and inventories rebuilding. A signed U.S.-Iran deal could pull prices down faster than EIA expects, and new tanker attacks or refinery trouble could push them back up.

What to watch:

- EIA's weekly diesel average, the benchmark most fuel surcharge tables use.
- Whether crude keeps sliding or rebounds if U.S.-Iran talks stall.
- EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook, due Dec. 8, according to the agency.

Track the weekly average on PDI's diesel prices page.