EIA's diesel average falls 16.5 cents to $6.127 as crude's slide reaches the pump, but the Northeast lags

The federal benchmark behind most fuel surcharge tables has started to follow crude down. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's national average for on-highway diesel was $6.127 a gallon on Nov. 9, down 16.5 cents from $6.292 a week earlier, according to EIA's weekly fuel update released Nov. 10.

What changed: the decline sped up. EIA's average had eased only to $6.292 on Nov. 2 from $6.352 on Oct. 26, the agency's table shows. TheTrucker.com called the Nov. 9 move the largest weekly drop since the Iran war began. On Nov. 9, diesel still cost $2.29 a gallon more than a year earlier, by EIA's count.

The pump is catching up with the oil market. TheTrucker, citing the Associated Press, reported Nov. 10 that Brent had fallen 2.2% to $90.55 a barrel, its lowest level in three months, after President Trump said the war with Iran was all but over militarily.

The drop was not even

In EIA's Nov. 9 survey, the Rocky Mountain average fell 23.9 cents to $6.206 and the Midwest fell 20.1 cents to $6.201. EIA's Nov. 9 numbers also had the Gulf Coast down 17.1 cents to $5.741 and California down 17.9 cents to $7.897.

The Northeast barely moved. New England slipped 6.7 cents to $6.349 and the Central Atlantic 7.4 cents to $6.412, EIA reported for Nov. 9, leaving them the two priciest regions outside the West Coast. The Lower Atlantic, at $5.694, is the cheapest region in EIA's Nov. 9 survey.

What it means for carriers, shippers and brokers

For surcharge tables keyed to EIA's national average, the Nov. 9 reading cuts the price they are figured from by 16.5 cents. Carriers fueling in the Rockies or Midwest saved more than that at the pump. Carriers running the Northeast saved less than half as much, so a surcharge tied to the national number can shrink faster than their fuel bill. Fleets with Northeast-heavy freight may want tables tied to the regional averages EIA publishes each week.

Cheaper fuel has not freed up trucks. FreightWaves reported Nov. 10 that its SONAR tender rejection index, which tracks how often carriers turn down contracted loads, stood at 12.95%, against a 12-month average of 8.18%. Truckstop and FTR said broker-posted spot rates for the week ended Nov. 6 ran close to 35% above a year earlier even with fuel surcharges stripped out, TheTrucker reported Nov. 9. For shippers and brokers, that points to relief on the fuel line of the invoice, not on linehaul.

What to watch:

- EIA's next weekly diesel average, due Nov. 17, according to the agency's release schedule.
- Whether Northeast prices close the gap with the rest of the country.
- Any signed U.S.-Iran agreement, or new attacks on tankers that would reverse crude's slide.

Track the weekly average on PDI's diesel prices page.