Brent slips below $90 and diesel futures fall as Trump signals an end to the Iran war, but no deal is signed

The White House meeting oil traders were waiting on happened Monday, and wholesale diesel fell along with crude. Nothing has been signed, though, and the U.S. naval blockade of Iran is staying in place.

What changed since Monday morning: President Trump met Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, on Nov. 9 and then told reporters, "Iran militarily is effectively over," Al Jazeera reported. He said the U.S. would keep the status quo, which he described as continuing the naval blockade, and that more military action did not look necessary.

Crude had already fallen hard by Monday's close. Brent settled Nov. 9 at $92.57 a barrel, down $5.75 or 5.85%, and U.S. crude settled at $86.85, down $3.98 or 4.38%, Reuters reported via Investing.com. In trading after the Nov. 9 settlement, Brent was down more than $7 on the day, Reuters said. On Nov. 10, Brent slipped under $90 for the first time since August, then stood at $90.32 at 1:33 p.m. UAE time, with U.S. crude down 2.27% at $84.77, The National reported. That puts Brent more than 22% below the six-month high of $118 it hit Oct. 30, The Irish Times reported on Nov. 10.

Diesel followed. December ultra-low sulfur diesel futures on Nymex fell 11.69 cents, or 2.70%, to $4.2148 a gallon on Nov. 9, after touching $4.1502, DTN reported.

What is still unresolved

Tehran is not confirming any of it. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, accused Washington of inventing reports of talks, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied media reports that a meeting was being planned, Euronews reported on Nov. 10. Reuters reported Nov. 9 that a senior Iranian security official said Iran has no plans to negotiate until Washington meets seven conditions. Al Jazeera said those include lifting U.S. sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian funds and recognizing a new Hormuz shipping route worked out with Oman.

Shipping risk has not gone away. Reuters said Nov. 9 that both sides have reported vessels hit in or near the strait, and DTN's Nov. 9 report put maritime insurance there at 6% to 10% of a ship's hull value. On supply, JPMorgan estimated the world oil market ran a surplus of about 1.4 million barrels a day in October, Reuters reported Nov. 9.

What it means for carriers, shippers and brokers

The pump has not caught up. AAA's national diesel average was $6.17 on Nov. 9, down from $6.29 a week earlier but far above $3.73 a year ago, according to AAA's daily survey. AAA's record, $6.53, was set Sept. 22, 2026.

Drops in futures usually reach rack prices first and the pump later, and surcharge tables tied to EIA's weekly average adjust after that. Carriers fueling this week are mostly paying prices set when crude was higher. Shippers and brokers should expect surcharges to step down only as the weekly averages fall, and should not build budgets around a deal Iran has not agreed to.

What to watch this week:

- EIA's weekly retail diesel average, the benchmark for most surcharge tables, due Tuesday, Nov. 10.
- EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, OPEC's monthly report on Wednesday and the IEA's on Friday, according to DTN.
- Any confirmed meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials, or new attacks on tankers.

Track the weekly average on PDI's diesel prices page.