Diesel drops 12 cents to $6.17 as crude slides again on Iran talks, but tankers are still getting hit

Retail diesel is starting to reflect last week's crude selloff, but the drop is measured in cents and the diplomacy behind it still has no signed terms.

AAA put the national diesel average at $6.17 on November 9, down 12 cents in a week and well above the $3.73 of a year earlier, in figures published by Oswego County Today. GasBuddy's November 9 survey came in close, at $6.186, down 9.5 cents on the week, WBIW reported. AAA's regular gasoline average fell faster, losing 16 cents in the week to reach $4.00 on November 9.

What changed since last week: crude fell again on Monday, and the talks now have a date at the White House. The Associated Press, in Transport Topics, reported Brent down 3.6% at $94.76 and U.S. crude down 3.1% at $88.05 early on November 9. AP said Qatar, the lead mediator, had put proposals to Iran that Tehran was reviewing, and that President Trump was scheduled to meet Qatar's prime minister that day. Speaking Sunday, Trump called new U.S. strikes on Iran highly unlikely as long as negotiations make progress, Reuters reported via Insurance Journal.

What is actually on the table

The most detailed terms so far come from unnamed diplomats quoted by the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom. As relayed by OilPrice.com on November 9, the reported swap would reopen Hormuz and end attacks on Gulf tankers in return for an end to the U.S. blockade and access to $8 billion of Iranian money held in Qatar. Neither government has confirmed that. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on November 8 that the two sides are not close to a breakthrough, CBS News reported.

Ships are still being hit in the meantime. On November 8, Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed that three oil tankers had burned in the strait after straying from routes it approves, The National reported, without naming any ship. Saudi Arabia said debris from missiles it intercepted on November 8 damaged an Aramco building in Riyadh, AP reported.

What it means for carriers, shippers and brokers

Fuel analyst Tom Kloza wrote on X on November 9 that AAA's gasoline average was about to dip below $4, then added: "Much less relief in sight for diesel." Supply is part of that picture. Energy News Beat, citing EIA data, said on November 9 that U.S. distillate stocks were 99.3 million barrels in the week ended October 30, the first reading under 100 million since May 2003. Reuters, citing the regional governor, also reported a fire on November 9 at Russia's Kirishi refinery after a Ukrainian drone attack.

For most surcharge tables, the number that counts is EIA's weekly average, which was $6.292 on November 2, FleetOwner reported. The next reading is expected Tuesday, November 10. AAA and EIA were less than a cent apart in that November 2 survey, according to FleetOwner, so AAA's drop is a fair hint of direction, not a guarantee.

What to watch this week:

- The EIA diesel average on Tuesday, November 10.
- EIA's weekly inventory report, moved to Thursday, November 12, for Veterans Day, according to Energy News Beat.
- Any signed terms or a breakdown after the White House meeting. Until something is on paper, budget for both outcomes.

Track the weekly average on PDI's diesel prices page.