Intermodal contract rates up 12% on the transcon, but fuel drives most of it

Intermodal contract rates are climbing into year-end, and most of the increase is fuel. FreightWaves market analyst Zach Strickland reported on November 7 that transcontinental intermodal contract rates, fuel included, are up more than 12% from a year ago. Shorter Eastern lanes are up close to 9%.

Fuel explains most of the jump

Strickland estimates fuel accounts for roughly two-thirds of the transcontinental increase and three-quarters of the Eastern one. Without fuel, he puts transcontinental rates up about 5% and Eastern rates up about 2%.

The timing follows diesel. Strickland notes that diesel climbed roughly 36% from July to September, and the transcontinental index rose 10% from August to October. He points out that invoice data lags actual freight by a few weeks, so fuel swings reach the indexes late.

The Energy Information Administration put the national on-highway diesel average at $6.292 a gallon on November 2, down 6 cents from the prior week and $2.539 above a year earlier.

Strickland says J.B. Hunt, which has a large intermodal book, reportedly landed only low-single-digit rate increases in the bid season that closed in September. He reads that as a sign that many large shippers negotiated fuel tables less aggressive than the commonly published schedules.

What it means for carriers

Intermodal still looks cheap next to trucking. Strickland's Intermodal Contract Savings Index shows intermodal about 30% below comparable truckload lanes, down slightly from a peak of 33% in June. He expects it to stay a strong savings option.

Volume is moving that way. The Association of American Railroads reported that U.S. intermodal traffic for the week ending October 31 was 280,264 containers and trailers, up 3.9% from the same week in 2025. Through the first 43 weeks of 2026, U.S. railroads handled 12,271,905 intermodal units, up 4.7%.

For truckload carriers, that is a competitor with a price edge while spot truckload rates run well above last year. Drayage and regional carriers tied to rail ramps see the other side of the same trend.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Most intermodal rates reset near year-end, so contract language matters now. Strickland describes the tradeoff: a larger fuel share adds price volatility but lets total rates fall further if diesel drops after a contract is signed at a high price. A smaller share steadies cost but gives shippers less benefit when fuel falls.

Strickland also cited a recent weather-related BNSF washout in New Mexico and a CSX technical outage as reminders that rail service can be disrupted, so brokers moving freight to rail should keep truck backup options.

The next EIA diesel reading is due November 10. See current prices on PDI's diesel page.