Spot truckload rates run 41% above last year, but FTR and DAT split on the latest week

Truckload spot rates are running about 41% above last year, but the week-to-week picture turned murkier this week, and the two main rate trackers disagree on direction.

Chris Pickett, chief commercial officer at Flock Freight, told FreightWaves on Nov. 3 that spot truckload rates were up 41% year over year through October. He said contract rates have reset 10% to 12% higher, depending on the index. His forecast: spot rates have another 10% to 15% to run, peaking around 45% to 50% above year-ago levels this quarter or next. Flock sells shared truckload capacity, so treat the call as one view, not a consensus.

Trackers split on the latest week

FleetOwner reported on Nov. 5 that FTR showed spot rates falling across dry van, reefer and flatbed, the first drop across all three since August. FTR put dry van down 3 cents, reefer down 4 cents and flatbed down almost 2 cents, with year-over-year gains of almost 48% for dry van, over 41% for reefer and 42% for flatbed.

DAT's weekly linehaul numbers, as cited in the same article, moved the other way: dry van up 3 cents to $2.23 a mile, reefer up 3 cents to $2.71 and flatbed up 1 cent to $2.61. The article did not explain the gap, which likely comes from differences in how each firm samples loads and weights lanes. FleetOwner called the declines mostly normal for this time of year, except for flatbed.

What it means for carriers

The year-over-year gap is large, but one soft week is not a trend. Carriers holding capacity for spot freight should watch whether the FTR decline shows up in DAT's next report before repricing lanes. Pickett expects contract rates to reach 15% to 20% above year-ago levels by mid-2027 and does not expect sequential declines until early 2028, which, if right, favors carriers who have not locked in low contract rates.

Fuel is part of the squeeze. The Energy Information Administration put the U.S. on-highway diesel average at $6.292 a gallon on Nov. 2, down 6 cents from the prior week but $2.539 above a year earlier. Pickett said diesel has risen faster than all-in spot rates for roughly the past six months.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Pickett's advice to shippers was to revisit mode strategies left on autopilot during the freight recession, consider intermodal rail, and look at shared truckload for partly filled trailers, which he said runs 5% to 30% below full truckload.

He also flagged fuel surcharge assumptions in current bids. If the Iran or Ukraine conflicts resolved and WTI crude dropped to $70 to $80 a barrel, in his scenario, surcharge schedules built on today's diesel could fall out of line and force another round of contract repricing.

Brokers should expect continued pressure on margins if spot costs rise faster than contract revenue. The next EIA diesel reading is due Nov. 10.