Class 8 orders fall 36% to 45% in October as fleets wait on EPA 2027 costs

Truck buyers pulled back sharply in October. Preliminary data from two forecasters shows North American Class 8 orders well below last year, and both point to the same cause: nobody is sure what the 2027 emissions rules will cost.

FTR reported on November 5 that preliminary October Class 8 net orders came to 15,600 units. That is down 24% from September and 36% from October 2025, and nearly 50% below the 10-year October average of 31,089 units. ACT Research's preliminary count was lower, at 13,500 units, down 45% from a year earlier. The two firms count differently, so the totals do not match. ACT will publish final October data in mid-November.

The picture is not all weak. FTR said year-to-date orders through October stand at 278,201 units, up 74% from the same period last year, which reflects the heavy pre-buy ahead of the earlier EPA 2027 deadline. ACT said medium-duty orders (Classes 5 through 7) rose 14% from a year earlier to 18,000 units.

Why fleets are holding back

ACT analyst Carter Vieth said the unclear EPA 2027 rules and their costs leave manufacturers and fleets unable to plan for next year. FTR estimates that under the proposed framework, nonconformance penalties could add $6,000 to $7,000 per engine if builders pass them on, compared with an estimated $8,000 to $12,000 premium for fully compliant engines. FTR notes that final costs depend on the final rule and on how manufacturers price.

FTR senior analyst Dan Moyer said freight rates are firm, but higher fuel, insurance and labor costs are squeezing margins. He said fleet capital may shift toward trailers for now, and that some purchases may be "deferred rather than canceled."

What it means for carriers

Fleets that wait may face a crowd of orders once the rules settle, which could stretch build slots and push prices up. Carriers running older equipment should price in repair costs and downtime while they decide.

For capacity, fewer new trucks ordered now means slower fleet growth later. FTR says replacement needs, tighter capacity and firmer rates still support demand over time.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Weak orders do not change capacity this month, but they matter for 2027 contract planning. If carriers hold off on replacements while costs stay high, fleets have less room to add trucks, and that tends to support rates. Final ACT numbers in mid-November and the final EPA rule are the two things to watch.