Cargo theft incidents fell 33% in Q3, but CargoNet says losses rose 12% to about $230 million

Verisk CargoNet reported on November 5 that cargo theft incidents in the U.S. and Canada fell sharply in the third quarter, while the money lost kept climbing. The pattern points to fewer but larger and smarter thefts.

According to Truck News, CargoNet logged 547 supply chain crime incidents in Q3, down 33% from a year earlier and 19% from Q2. Estimated losses came to just over $230 million, up 12% from $205.1 million in Q3 2025. Through September, CargoNet's year-to-date loss estimate is $718.9 million, up 39%, per Claims Journal.

What changed in the data

The average value of a theft with a documented loss rose 72%, to $448,456 from $261,115, according to CargoNet figures reported by Claims Journal. Thefts of $1 million or more reached 19 in the quarter, against nine in Q3 2025, and many involved high-value electronics and data center materials, Truck News reported.

Fictitious pickups, where a thief poses as a legitimate carrier or manipulates shipment information to collect a load, totaled 138 incidents versus 147 a year ago. Because total incidents fell faster, their share of all reports rose from 18% to about 25%, CargoNet said.

CargoNet also pointed to digital tools in these schemes, including compromised business email accounts, internet-based phone systems and transportation industry apps used to redirect freight. Keith Lewis, CargoNet's vice president of operations, said "We're seeing criminals combine digital deception with traditional theft tactics," per Truck News.

California had 182 incidents, about one-third of the total, followed by New Jersey with 46, Texas with 43 and Illinois with 40. Those four states made up 57% of incidents, according to Truck News. Food and beverage was the most targeted category at 94 incidents, followed by metals at 63, led by copper.

What it means for carriers

Carriers and brokers carry the exposure when a load goes to the wrong truck. Verify every pickup against the booking: confirm the driver and company against the carrier you actually tendered, call back on a number you already had on file and not one in the email, and treat last-minute changes to pickup time or contact details as a red flag.

What shippers and brokers should watch

CargoNet warned that theft could rise in the fourth quarter and into the new year, because holiday closures and thin staffing have historically opened gaps, Truck News reported. Shippers with high-value electronics or copper moving through California, Texas, Illinois or New Jersey have the most reason to tighten release procedures, limit weekend and holiday staging, and keep drop yards secured.

For brokers, the lesson in the numbers is that the schemes are shifting toward identity and communications fraud. Vetting carriers once at onboarding is not enough when a compromised email account can make a fraudster look like a known partner on the next load.