Old Dominion's tonnage turns positive for the first time in two years, but fuel is doing the heavy lifting

Old Dominion Freight Line, one of the largest U.S. less-than-truckload carriers, reported on Oct. 28 that its daily tonnage grew year over year in September for the first time in more than two years. The company also said a real recovery still depends on demand, and demand depends on energy prices coming down.

What the numbers show

According to FreightWaves' report on the third-quarter results, Old Dominion's tons per day were flat for the quarter, down about 1% in July and August and up 1.6% in September. Revenue was $1.59 billion, up 13% from a year earlier, but only about 5% excluding fuel surcharges. The company said revenue per hundredweight rose 13.3% with fuel and 5.1% without it, per the earnings call transcript published by The Motley Fool.

Most of the gain came from price, not freight. FreightWaves reported that diesel ran 48% above last year during the quarter, and Old Dominion's 4.9% general rate increase took effect Oct. 1 this year, a month earlier than in 2025, according to CFO Adam Satterfield on the call. Operating ratio improved 280 basis points to 71.5%.

October looks firmer on revenue, with revenue per day up about 22% from a year earlier, according to Satterfield. But he also said October tonnage was falling about 5% to 5.5% from September, worse than the roughly 3.5% decline the company sees in a typical year. The transcript has some garbled passages, so treat that figure as approximate.

Executives told analysts that "upcycle-like" results need a more material demand inflection, which they tied to record energy prices easing, per FreightWaves. Shares fell about 5.5% at midday on Oct. 28, as investors questioned how much of the earnings strength is fuel-driven.

What it means for shippers and brokers

Old Dominion said it has more than 35% spare door capacity and expects to take share from carriers that are struggling with service. Satterfield said some customers are asking for multiyear contracts, which CEO Kevin Freeman described as running about two years and built on base rate increases, with no volume commitments.

For shippers, that points to LTL pricing that keeps rising even where volume is flat. Check how your fuel surcharge table is indexed, because surcharges reset weekly and carry much of the revenue growth. Brokers placing LTL freight should expect service quality to vary more by carrier than price does.

What it means for carriers

Truckload carriers should read this as a sign that the freight base is stabilizing, not surging. Industrial customers make up 55% to 60% of Old Dominion's revenue, per Satterfield, so a move in factory demand is the signal to watch. Fuel stays the swing factor on both sides of the ledger.