Spot rates slip 2 to 3 cents a mile as diesel climbs to $6.47, DAT reports

Spot truckload rates slipped again last week, but the drop came from a cooling load board, not from carriers getting relief on costs. DAT Freight & Analytics reported on Oct. 26 that broker-to-carrier spot rates fell 2 to 3 cents a mile for the week of Oct. 17 to 23, while diesel kept climbing.

What the numbers show

According to DAT, the 7-day average all-in spot rate (linehaul plus fuel surcharge) was $3.07 a mile for dry van, $3.63 for reefer and $3.61 for flatbed. Each was down 2 to 3 cents from the prior week. DAT said the fuel surcharge barely moved, so nearly all of the decline was linehaul.

Load posts on DAT One totaled 2.58 million, down 2%. Truck posts were roughly flat for van and up 2% to 3% for reefer and flatbed. The van load-to-truck ratio eased to 9.5 from 9.7, and reefer dropped to 14.8 from 15.8. DAT's Dean Croke said linehaul fell because load posts declined faster than truck posts, and that reefer demand turned lower.

Capacity is still the story. Croke said truck posts are 20% to 26% below a year ago, and van linehaul is 33% above last year. DAT's 35-day forecast has van linehaul holding near $2.24 a mile through late November.

What it means for carriers

Diesel is eating the gains. Croke, citing Pilot Flying J data, put the average pump price at $6.47 a gallon on Oct. 24, up 13 cents from Oct. 17 and $2.17 above the pre-war baseline of $4.30. DAT estimates fuel now costs a spot van carrier about 92 cents a mile, or 43% of operating costs, versus 59 cents and 32% before the war.

The Energy Information Administration's weekly average was $6.276 a gallon on Oct. 19, up 9.7 cents and the first weekly increase in four weeks, per EIA. DAT said that should add about 2 cents a mile to next week's surcharge for all three equipment types.

A slightly softer spot rate with higher fuel means thinner margins for owner-operators and small fleets running without a fuel-indexed contract. Check that your surcharge schedule resets to the current EIA reading.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Rates have eased for two straight weeks, but DAT's own data shows them 23% to 29% above nine-year seasonal averages for late October. The week-earlier DAT report, covering Oct. 10 to 16, had van at $3.09 and reefer at $3.66, both attributed mostly to lower diesel at the time. That driver has now reversed.

Brokers quoting spot freight should expect surcharge-driven increases next week even if linehaul stays flat. Shippers in bid season should treat the late-October dip as a pause, not a trend, while truck supply stays well below last year.

For daily pump prices by state, see PDI's diesel prices page.