Traffix tells shippers to budget 5% to 8% higher linehaul rates for 2027

Shippers heading into 2027 bid season are being told to plan for higher linehaul rates, even though freight volume is not growing. Traffix, a third-party logistics provider, published its Q4 2026 market update this week, and Truck News carried it on Oct. 24. The core message is that carriers hold the most pricing power they have had since early 2022.

The scenarios

Traffix gives three budget cases for U.S. truckload linehaul rates in 2027, all excluding fuel. Its base case is an increase of 5% to 8% for the full year. A softer market would mean 2% to 5%, and a tight market would mean 8% to 12% or more, with double-digit pressure on constrained lanes.

The firm says contract rates are about 10% above spring levels. It also says that simply holding late-2026 contract levels through 2027 would amount to an increase of 4% to 5% over the 2026 average, before any further hikes. Spot rates peaked on July 4, rebounded in late September and are again below contract linehaul rates, according to Traffix.

Alex Fuller, Traffix's vice president of commercial intelligence, summed up the cause: "shippers are paying for a lack of capacity, not a surge in freight." Traffix describes demand as roughly flat heading into the fourth quarter.

What it means for carriers

The leverage is real, but it comes from supply, not from a demand boom, so it can shift if volume swings. Traffix expects flatbed capacity to tighten quickly through peak and dry van to stay volatile through year-end. It sees no significant drop in temperature-controlled rates through the end of produce season, steady LTL pricing with carrier increases likely in December and January, and continued drayage disruption in the fourth quarter.

Fuel is the other moving part. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a weekly average on-highway diesel price of $6.276 per gallon for Oct. 19, up 9.7 cents from the prior week. Traffix says diesel hit record levels in September and eased in early October, and it tells shippers to budget fuel separately from linehaul.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Traffix recommends budgeting linehaul, fuel and accessorial charges as separate lines, planning for peak-season disruption with extra safety stock or alternative modes, and keeping flexibility through shorter contract terms or indexed pricing. Fuller also warned that shippers who wait for relief before setting 2027 budgets risk starting the year underfunded.

These are one firm's scenarios, not a market consensus. Brokers pricing contract freight should watch whether spot rates close the gap with contract rates, since that would signal how much room carriers have to push in the next round of bids.

Track the latest weekly numbers on PDI's diesel prices page.