Truck tonnage rises 0.8% in September, but volume is flat on last year while capacity keeps shrinking

Freight moved a little more in September, but not enough to say demand has turned. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported on October 20 that its seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.8 percent in September to 114, up from 113.1 in August. Compared with September 2025, the index was unchanged. August had been down 1.3 percent from a year earlier.

The unadjusted number tells a more seasonal story. ATA put the not seasonally adjusted index at 114.8 in September, down 1.4 percent from 116.4 in August. For the year so far, tonnage is up 0.9 percent from the same nine months of 2025, a gain ATA attributes to strong comparisons from February through April.

A weak quarter with a better ending

ATA chief economist Bob Costello said weak July and August readings left the third quarter below both the prior quarter and the prior year, even though September ended on a better note. The ATA release gives no exact third-quarter percentage, so treat that as his characterization rather than a measured figure.

Costello's read on the market is the part carriers will care about. He said tonnage is soft but "capacity is still contracting, which is leading to a better market for motor carriers," according to the ATA release. In other words, trucks are leaving faster than freight is arriving, and that is what holds up pricing.

One caution on the data: ATA says both its tonnage indexes lean toward contract freight rather than spot freight, and that the September figure is preliminary. The final report, issued around the fifth of each month, can revise it. August has already been revised up from the number ATA first published on September 22.

What it means for carriers

Flat volume with shrinking capacity is a narrow kind of strength. It supports rates, but it does not add loads, so a carrier's margin depends on its own cost per mile more than on the market lifting everyone. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) put the national average diesel price at $6.276 a gallon on October 19, up 9.7 cents on the week and $2.656 above a year earlier. Any rate gain has to be measured against a fuel bill that large.

Carriers should look at whether their contract freight is keeping pace with that fuel bill, since contract freight is what the ATA index mostly measures.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Shippers should not read flat tonnage as a sign of slack. Costello's comment points to a market where the shortage is on the truck side, which is why bid-season rate requests may not come back lower. Brokers covering contract lanes should watch the final September revision in early November and the October reading in late November. Two more months of small gains alongside continued capacity exits would suggest the balance is shifting toward carriers, as ATA argues. A reversal in tonnage with no change in capacity would point the other way.