Intermodal climbs 10.4% in AAR's latest week as tight truck supply pushes freight to rail

Railroads are taking a bigger share of long-haul freight, and the trucking market they are taking it from is short on capacity, not on demand. Two sets of numbers released this week show both sides of that shift.

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported on October 14 that U.S. intermodal volume for the week ending October 10 was 302,252 containers and trailers, up 10.4 percent from the same week in 2025. Total U.S. rail traffic that week was 534,256 carloads and intermodal units, up 7.2 percent. Through the first 40 weeks of 2026, AAR counts 11,379,949 intermodal units, up 4.4 percent.

A market update from Port X Logistics dated October 15 says AAR called the third quarter the strongest ever recorded for U.S. intermodal. The same update credits the shift to high diesel prices, tighter trucking capacity and better rail service. That last part is the blog's reading of the market, not an AAR finding.

Why trucks are tight

On October 19, ATA chief economist Bob Costello told the group's management conference in Charlotte that the freight recovery is supply driven, according to Transport Topics. He said truckload revenue per mile fell 8.4 percent from 2022 through 2025 while nonfuel operating costs rose more than 13 percent, and that enforcement this year is removing what he called shadow capacity. Costello pointed to scrutiny of driver training, English-language proficiency, non-domiciled CDLs, B-1 visa rules and ELD compliance.

He also said he does not expect fleets to rebuild capacity quickly, and that projected Class 8 sales growth of 14 percent this year mostly reflects deferred replacement buying. On fuel, he said distillate stocks are historically low for this time of year, which could push diesel higher into the fall freight season.

What it means for carriers

Intermodal is now a real competitor on the lanes where rail service is dependable. Carriers running long hauls into and out of rail ramps should expect shippers to test rail pricing in bids, and should know what their own cost per mile looks like at current diesel prices before they answer.

The upside is that the same tight supply that pushes freight to rail also supports truckload rates. The risk is a bid season where rail looks cheaper on paper than a truck that is burning expensive diesel.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Shippers shifting boxes to intermodal should plan for the drayage leg, which still moves by truck and is exposed to the same capacity squeeze. Brokers should watch the weekly AAR figures each Wednesday. A second or third week of double-digit intermodal growth would suggest the shift is more than a seasonal bump.

For the latest pump prices, see PDI's diesel prices page.