Spot rates slip on cheaper fuel, but linehaul holds as truck capacity stays thin

Spot truckload rates barely moved last week, and the small dip that did show up came from fuel, not from the freight market. DAT Freight & Analytics reported that its national average all-in rates (linehaul plus fuel) for Oct. 10 to 16 slipped for all three main equipment types, while the rate carriers get before fuel held steady.

DAT put dry van at $3.09 per mile, down 3 cents, reefer at $3.66, down 2 cents, and flatbed at $3.64, down 4 cents. It said cheaper diesel trimmed average fuel surcharges by 3 to 4 cents per mile and explained nearly all of the decline. For context, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's most recent weekly on-highway diesel average on its site was $6.179 per gallon for Oct. 12, down 2 cents from the week before.

Linehaul is flat, volume is cooling

Strip out fuel and the picture is steadier. DAT's dry van linehaul rate stayed at $2.26 per mile, reefer rose 1 cent to $2.76, and flatbed was essentially unchanged at $2.65. DAT said dry van linehaul is up about 35% from a year ago, reefer is up 33% and flatbed is up 29%.

Load postings are softer. DAT One load posts totaled 2.6 million, down 3% from the prior week, and dry van load posts fell 6% to about 1.21 million. The dry van load-to-truck ratio eased to 9.7 from 10.3, and reefer slipped to 15.8 from 16.2. Flatbed went the other way, rising to 36.5 from 35.7.

Truckstop, in data for the week ended Oct. 16 reported by Truck News on Oct. 20, saw the same pattern. Its overall market rate fell 0.3 cents per mile, load activity dropped 1.2%, and truck postings fell 1.8%. It put total spot rates about 42% above the same week last year.

What it means for carriers

Capacity is still the story. DAT said truck postings are running 21% to 27% below a year ago while load postings are 12% to 23% higher. DAT analyst Dean Croke described capacity as "the key factor in pricing." Carriers holding out for better spot loads are not being forced to cut, even with volume cooling.

DAT's 35-day RateCast forecast calls for dry van linehaul to ease to $2.23 per mile by late November, reefer to rise to $2.78 and flatbed to slip to $2.59. Those are DAT's projections, not guarantees.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Shippers should not read a one-week all-in dip as relief. When the fuel component falls, the linehaul portion is what reflects the supply and demand balance, and it has not softened. Brokers quoting spot freight should separate the two lines on a quote so a fuel move is not mistaken for a market move.

Truckstop said seasonal patterns usually point to lower dry van and flatbed rates this week, with reefer typically firming. Watch next week's DAT numbers to see whether load posts keep sliding while truck counts stay thin.

Track current fuel numbers on our diesel prices page.