Truckload rates head for a four-year high as capacity, not demand, drives the climb

Truckload rates are heading for their highest level since early 2022, and the people tracking them agree on one point: trucks are getting scarce faster than freight is getting busy.

AFS Logistics said in its TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, reported October 13, that its Q4 2026 truckload rate index sits 23.4% above its January 2018 baseline. That is up 14.7% from a year earlier and up from 19.7% in Q3. AFS CEO Andy Dyer described the market as "steady demand chasing a shrinking pool of trucks."

What the numbers say

FreightWaves SONAR data, cited in an October 14 report from Transportation and Logistics International, put the contract truckload rate at $2.72 per mile excluding fuel in early October, up 18% from a year earlier. The same report said the National Truckload Index of spot rates was up nearly 50% year over year, and that the Outbound Tender Reject Index was 13.75%, inside a recent 13% to 14% range.

ACT Research said in its September outlook, covered October 1, that the DAT contract rate averaged $2.52 per mile in August, also 18% above August 2025. ACT's Driver Availability Index tightened to 35.9 in August.

The report cites TRAFFIX, which sees 2027 truckload linehaul costs rising 5% to 8% in its central scenario and 8% to 12% or more if capacity gets severely constrained. It also estimates that simply annualizing late-2026 contract pricing adds about 4% to 5% against the 2026 average.

Why it is a capacity story

AFS attributes the climb mainly to shrinking capacity, elevated diesel prices and regulatory enforcement, not to a demand recovery. It says enforcement is pulling drivers off the road and closing driver training facilities, and it counted bankruptcies at 16 trucking companies over a 30-day period. AFS also noted that Q2 U.S. GDP growth of 2.2% was concentrated in services and investment rather than goods.

ACT Research analyst Tim Denoyer pointed to new FMCSA rules and broker liability laws as barriers to entry that slow any capacity response, and said he expects a "stronger for longer" cycle for for-hire carriers.

What it means for carriers

Pricing power has moved toward carriers who run clean and reliable. Tender rejections around 13% to 14% mean contract freight is no longer guaranteed to be accepted at old rates, so expect shippers to come to the table earlier this year.

What shippers and brokers should watch

Shippers renewing bids this fall are locking in 2027 costs now. The TLI report suggests focusing on dependable carriers, tracking tender acceptance, and separating fuel from linehaul so each can be judged on its own. Domestic intermodal volumes were up 8% year over year, per FreightWaves, which may suit some long-haul lanes. Brokers face a squeeze: spot and contract rates have moved closer together, which narrows the cushion on freight bought in the spot market against contract sell rates.

Equipment matters too. TRAFFIX put Q3 average tender rejections at 13% for dry van, 23% for refrigerated and 17% for flatbed, so a national average can understate what a reefer shipper is facing.